When it was replaced in the 2010s, the estimated costs were more than $200 million. We will talk about these “non-weather” risks more fully later in the post.īuilt in the 1960s, the Bonner Bridge carried North Carolina Highway 12 over Oregon Inlet-the only road connecting the mainland to the popular beaches known as the Outer Banks. In addition, global sea level rise will increase storm surge hazards for landfalling storms, including the depth of the flooding and the area affected. The more people, property, and infrastructure we have there, the greater our exposure to hurricane threats, regardless of climate change. is population growth and development in coastal areas. First things first: population growth and global sea level riseīefore we discuss future impacts of global warming on hurricanes themselves, it’s important to point out that the biggest influence on future hurricane risks in the U.S. In this blog, we briefly review the relevant science research on this topic. We expect they are some combination of a longer cycle of natural variability, reduced aerosol cooling since the 1970s, and the influence of human-caused greenhouse warming, but the relative contributions of these factors remain uncertain.īut what about the future? A key issue facing hurricane scientists and climate scientists is how Atlantic hurricane activity might be expected to change assuming the climate continues to warm over the coming century along the lines predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 6th Assessment Report under various greenhouse-gas pathways. While several Atlantic hurricane metrics-including maximum storm intensities and the number of major hurricanes-have increased since around 1980, we cannot confidently say what has caused these multidecadal trends to date. Last month, in a Beyond the Data blog post, we examined whether scientists can detect any significant change in Atlantic hurricane activity to date due to man-made climate change. A NOAA State of the Science Fact Sheet on “ Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate”, which has been reviewed by NOAA, is also available. It should be noted that the following discussion represents the authors’ opinions only and does not represent any official position of NHC, NWS, GFDL, or NOAA in general. Tom Knutson is a Senior Scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, NJ. Landsea is the Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL.
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